Brian’s Fantasy Breakdown: Week 1

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Brian’s Fantasy Breakdown: Week 1

Underhyped

  1. Chris Hogan

Despite his background being in Lacrosse, Chris Hogan is bound for a big year as he enters his third year with Bill Bellichek and the New England Patriots. With Brandin Cooks in Los Angeles and Julian Edelman suspended the first four games, Hogan is bound to be Tom Brady’s number one target outside of Rob Gronkowski for the early part of the season. Although Gronk is known to be the primary red zone target for the Patriots, in the first 8 weeks of the season (when Hogan was healthy), he had more red zone targets than Gronk. Hogan had 11 red zone targets in that span, which was fourth in the NFL while Gronk only had 9 red zone targets. Clearly, the volume will be there for Chris Hogan all year long, but especially in the early part of the season without Julian Edelman.

 

  1. Royce Freeman

The past two years, at least two rookie running backs have finished the year as top ten running backs. This included Ezekiel Elliot and Jordan Howard in 2016, and Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette in 2017. This year I believe this will happen again with Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman.  Freeman has seemingly already beaten out Devontae Booker as the Denver Broncos workhorse back, which Freeman is built to be as he is six feet and two hundred and thirty pounds. During Freeman’s time at the University of Oregon, he led the country during his four years in touchdowns and was second in yards. The Broncos were eighth in the NFL in rushing attempts last year, which means a lot of volume for the rookie from Oregon.

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  1. Will Fuller V

During the four-game span last year, in which Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller were both healthy, Fuller was the second-best wide receiver in fantasy and scored on average 20.95 points per game. With Watson back under center and Deandre Hopkins on the other side of the field receiving a lot of attention, Fuller should be able to make plays down the field at a high rate this year. The only worry about Fuller is he can be big play reliant at times, and he has missed eight games over a span of two years.

 

Overhyped

  1. Kenyan Drake

Kenyan Drake is not made to be a workhorse back as he averaged less than 10 rushes per game last year. Drake’s volume will now be even more limited than last year as he is in a crowded backfield with Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage. Not only is Drake’s volume limited, but when he has the ball he has a tendency of losing yardage. Last year, Drake lost yards on 15 percent of his rushes, which was the fifth highest percentage out of all qualified rushers last year.

 

  1. Tyreek Hill

Although Tyreek Hill was a top ten wide receiver last year, his numbers are unsustainable. Hill is the first wide receiver since 2000 to finish fantasy as a top 12 receiver despite being targeted on less than 20 percent of a teams targets and less than 10 percent of red zone targets. Hill’s volume does not look like it will rise this year too with the addition of Sammy Watkins and Spencer Ware returning from injury.

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  1. Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks is very similar to Tyreek Hill in terms of me not seeing the volume for him this year. The Rams are stacked with playmakers such as Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and of course Todd Gurley. Cooks is being drafted as a top twenty wide receiver in ESPN leagues this year, but I him being extremely inconsistent. He will most likely have three or four great games this year, but they will be hard to predict. I would much rather pick a player such as Jarvis Landry or Chris Hogan instead of Cooks.

 

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